TDI: Manufacturers stop, fall instead of rise?

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Wen|Hua Xu

Recently,TDIThe good news on the supply side continues one after another, and various maintenance and accidental parking emerge in endlessly:

table1 RecentTDIStatistics of manufacturers' installations

At present, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers is only at 3It is about 100%, almost the lowest level in recent years.

Not only domestic but also foreign manufacturers are at low Load Status:

8Mid-month, IranTDIManufacturerKARUN The device was shut down for maintenance for about two weeks.

8month28Day,BASF plant in the United States was shut down due to Hurricane Ira

9month7Day, BASF, USAThe device has not been restarted and force majeure has been declared.

9At the beginning of the month, Hanwha Corporation of South KoreaTDIDevice load reduced to55%.

In the past, after such a concentrated supply shortage news, the market tended to open quickly skyrocketing mode. 2016years even reached50000Yuan/Ton's historic high. However, today'sTDIDownstream manufacturers have long been accustomed to strong winds and waves, and the news is positive It has been difficult to cause waves, and there is even a situation where good news continues to be released, but market prices continue to fall. The main reason is that this year's traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" was not as expected due to factors such as repeated epidemics, environmental protection policies, and safety inspections. However, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia was severe, demand was sluggish, and shipping costs soared. Compared with the first half of the year, the export volume Almost cut in half.

Although the current supply is obviously tightened, the overall supply and demand is still at a low level due to the weak demand relatively balanced. And the second halfTDIManufacturers’ installations will gradually return to normal operation, and the supply side has changed significantly. However, there is currently no significant positive expectation on the demand side. It is expected that TDI Continue to continue in the short term It has been range-bound for a long time.

In the past, after such a concentrated supply shortage news, the market tended to open quickly skyrocketing mode. 2016years even reached50000Yuan/Ton's historic high. However, today'sTDIDownstream manufacturers have long been accustomed to strong winds and waves, and the news is positive It has been difficult to cause waves, and there is even a situation where good news continues to be released, but market prices continue to fall. The main reason is that this year's traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" was not as expected due to factors such as repeated epidemics, environmental protection policies, and safety inspections. However, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia was severe, demand was sluggish, and shipping costs soared. Compared with the first half of the year, the export volume Almost cut in half.

Although the current supply is obviously tightened, the overall supply and demand is still at a low level due to the weak demand relatively balanced. And the second halfTDIManufacturers’ installations will gradually return to normal operation, and the supply side has changed significantly. However, there is currently no significant positive expectation on the demand side. It is expected that TDI Continue to continue in the short term It has been range-bound for a long time.