On October 31, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.
In October, the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.5%, 50.6% and 50.7% respectively, down 0.7, 1.1 and 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. my country's economic boom The level has declined, and the foundation for continued recovery still needs to be further consolidated.
1. The manufacturing purchasing managers index has declined
In October, affected by factors such as the National Day holiday and the early release of some demand before the holiday, the manufacturing PMI boom level declined.
(1) The production index maintained expansion. Affected by factors such as a higher base in September and fewer working days in October, the production index this month was 50.9%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month and still higher than the critical point. The production boom level of manufacturing enterprises maintained expansion. From an industry perspective, the production indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment and other industries are all higher than 55.0%, and the production of related industries continues to maintain rapid growth; petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, black Industries such as metal smelting and rolling processing are below the critical point, and corporate production activities have slowed down.
(2) Demand has declined. The new orders index was 49.5%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of key industries, the new order index of the equipment manufacturing industry and the consumer goods industry were 52.2% and 51.8% respectively, continuing to remain in the expansion range, and market demand continued to recover; the new order index of high energy-consuming industries fell to 46.4%, a decrease of 2.8% from the previous month. percentage points, and the survey results show that the proportion of enterprises in high energy-consuming industries such as textiles, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing that reflect insufficient market demand exceeds 60%.
(3) Market expectations are stable and improving. The expectation index for production and operating activities was 55.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. It has been in a relatively high prosperity range for four consecutive months. Manufacturing companies have stable confidence in market development. From an industry perspective, the expected index of production and operation activities in agricultural and sideline food processing, wood processing and furniture, papermaking and printing, cultural, educational, sports and entertainment supplies, automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace equipment and other industries are all in the high-prosperity range of above 60.0%. Enterprises are optimistic about the development of the industry. The outlook is more optimistic.
(4) The PMI of large enterprises continues to be higher than the critical point. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.7%, which continues to be in the expansion range. In particular, its production index and new order index are both higher than the critical point, and the production and demand of enterprises are relatively stable; the PMI of medium and small enterprises were 48.7% and 47.9% respectively, down from the previous month. 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points, the prosperity level has declined.
(5) The price index fell. Affected by factors such as the recent decline in prices of some bulk commodities and the fall in market demand, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 52.6% and 47.7% respectively, down 6.8 and 5.8 percentage points from the previous month. From an industry perspective, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, chemical fibers and rubber plastic products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, etc., have declined significantly. Raw materials in related industries have declined significantly. Purchase and product sales price levels fluctuated significantly.
2. Non-manufacturing business activity index maintains expansion
In October, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.6%, still remaining in the expansion range.
(1) The service industry business activity index is higher than the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. Driven by the "National Day" holiday effect, the business activity indexes of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management related to residents' travel and consumption are all in the high-prosperity range above 55.0%. The total volume grew rapidly; at the same time, the business activity index of capital market services, real estate and other industries was running at a low level. Looking at market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 57.5%, indicating that most service industry companies remain optimistic about recent industry development.
(2) The construction industry business activity index continues to be in the expansion range. The business activity index of the construction industry was 53.5%, continuing to remain in the expansion range. Among them, the business activity index of the civil engineering and construction industry was 57.2%, which has been at a high operating level above 57.0% for three consecutive months, and the construction of infrastructure projects maintained a rapid progress. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 61.4%, which has always been in the high and prosperous range this year. Construction industry companies have stable and improving confidence in the recent market development.
3. Comprehensive PMI output index expansion slowed down
In October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month and continuing to be higher than the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of my country's enterprises maintained expansion. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.9% and 50.6% respectively.
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